In preparation for responding to this consultation, DimWatt's Hugh Sharman downloaded the "updated energy price projections" which both the DECC and UK Treasury use as assumptions in their economic and planning models.

The "central scenario" provides the "central assumptions".  We reproduce page 8 of this document here

We were shocked by how staggeringly optimistic these are and can confirm that they have been used by the UK Treasury in projecting the UK's economy. Naturally, we queried whether these could be taken seriously.  As a result of our query, we have been assured that these will be shortly be revised - and peer reviewed. Again.

In fact,  the history of the updated energy price projections since 1998 has been similar. Year after year each updated projection demonstrates how wrong the previous, invariably optimistic projection was.

In fact, it is notoriously difficult to forecast energy prices.  But there is a difference between being wrong and very, very wrong over and over again. 

We look forward to seeing the new, updated energy price projections shortly and the result of these revisions reflected in the Treasury forecasts and the revised effect on household and manufacturing budgets.

67-updated-emissions-projections-june-2010 (328.22 kB)

Modified_by_WEO_2008(2009) (powerpoint) (191.5 kB)

This important criticism was published in the October - December 2006 edition of World Economics.